America, crescita senza lavoro (o quasi)

In America la crescita è decisamente superiore a quella europea, ma i guai sono ben al di là da essere finita. I posti di lavoro sono in crescita - certo meglio di quello che succede dalle nostra parti - ma ad una velocità da lumaca, col governo che, a causa del cosiddetto sequestro sta portando un pò di austerity anche in USA e che, in questa maniera rema controcorrente. E che dire di una economia che ingrassa i portafogli dei ricchi e fa poco o nulla per i più poveri? I ricchi, lo abbiamo detto mille volte, e lo ribadisce autorevolmente Robert Reich, consumano una parte del loro reddito proporzionalmente inferiore a quella del resto della popolazione. Il loro arricchimento è dunque una perdita rispetto al livello di crescita potenziale della domanda aggregata che sarebbe ben più ricca se la diseguaglianza fosse in calo invece che in crescita. Insomma, le cause della crisi sono ancora lì, e siamo lontani da qualsiasi cambiamento strutturale

The Flaccid Job Report

di Robert Reich

da robertreich.org

We remain in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. The Labor Department reports that 165,000 new jobs were created in April – below the average gains of 183,000 in the previous three months.

We can’t achieve escape velocity. Since mid-2010, the three-month rolling average of job gains hasn’t dipped below 100,000 but has exceeded 250,000 jobs just twice.

This isn’t enough to ease the backlog of at least 3 million (estimates range up to 8 million) job losses since 2007, just before the Great Recession began. (And as I’ll point out in a moment, 2007 wasn’t exactly jobs nirvana.)

Moreover, most of the new jobs now being created pay less than the ones that were lost.

What’s wrong?

First, government is doing exactly the opposite of what it should be doing. It raised payroll taxes in January (ending the temporary tax holiday), thereby reducing the incomes of the typical family by about $1,000 this year.

More damaging, government cut spending through the damnable sequester – thereby reducing overall demand for goods and services. (Direct government employment dropped another 11,000 in April.)

There’s also a deepening structural problem. All the economic gains from the recovery have gone to the very top, leaving the middle class (and everyone aspiring to join it) with a shrinking portion of the pie.

Consumers are still spending, but tentatively at best. And much of the spending is coming from the rich, whose stock portfolios have grown nicely. (The wealthiest 10 percent of Americans own 90 percent of all shares of stock.)

But the rich don’t spend as much of their earnings as everyone else. They save and speculate around the world wherever they can get the highest return.

The structural problem of widening inequality also hurt the last recovery, which ended in 2007.

Compared to the one we’re now enduring, the previous recovery seems robust. But it was one of the weakest recoveries since World War II — propelled by borrowing of the middle class against the rising values of their homes.

When the housing bubble burst, the middle class no longer had the purchasing power to keep the economy going.

It still doesn’t.

The federal budget deficit is shrinking more quickly that forecasters had expected, mainly because of government cutbacks and tax payments from the well-to-do.

If there was ever a time for our leaders in Washington to declare victory over the deficit, and focus instead on jobs and inequality, it’s now. But don’t hold your breath.

L'America senza lavoro

In America le cose vanno meglio che in Europa, la ripresa economica, pur modesta è decisamente più sostenuta che nel Vecchio Continente. Il fiscal cliff è stato trasformato da burrone in gradino e il Presidente Obama si è sicuramente dimostrato più intelligente e flessibile di Frau Merkel. Eppure anche lì la crisi non è finita. Robert Reich, ministro del lavoro ai tempi di Clinton ed uno dei più vigorosi critici della destra liberista, ci spiega che l'economia americana è ancora in grande difficoltà. La disoccupazione scende, ma in realtà la percentuale di popolazione attiva impiegata è ai minimi storici, o quasi. Il mercato azionario va forte, ma questo avvantaggia solo i soliti noti. Si è ricominciato a costruire case, ma nuovamente  andranno nelle disponibilità dei più ricchi che potranno così affittare. Insomma, Reich analizza in profondità i numeri e ce li spiega con grande chiarezza: perchè la crescita economica conta poco se non serve a migliorare le condizioni di vita della maggioranza della popolazione.

The Big Stall

di Robert Reich

da robertreich.org

Bad news on the economy. It added only 88,000 jobs in March – the slowest pace of job growth in nine months.

While the jobless rate fell to 7.6 percent, much of the drop was due to the labor force shrinking by almost a half million people. If you’re not looking for work, you’re not counted as unemployed.

 That means the percentage of working-age Americans either with a job or looking for one dropped to 63.3 percent — its lowest level since 1979.

 The direction isn’t encouraging. The pace of job growth this year is slower than its pace last year.

What’s going on? The simple fact is companies won’t hire if consumers aren’t buying enough to justify the new hires. And consumers don’t have enough money, or credit, or confidence to buy enough.

It’s likely Americans are beginning to feel the pinches of January’s hike in the payroll tax combined with the government budget cuts known as the sequester. Increases in gas prices haven’t helped. All are taking money out of the pockets of most people – whose job situation remains precarious. So they can’t and won’t buy much.

One indicator: Retailers cut their staffs in March — by 24,100.

Yes, the stock market has rebounded. But only a small portion of Americans are affected by the rebound. The richest 1 percent own 35 percent of all shares of stock; the richest 10 percent own 90 percent.

And, yes, housing prices have stopped falling, and construction of new homes has picked up. The construction sector added 18,000 jobs in March.

But the turnaround in housing isn’t because prospective homeowners have been able to get new mortgages. It’s because investors are buying or building homes to rent. And a buoyant rental market doesn’t make most people feel wealthier.

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of all this is that we’re in the fifth year of a supposed economic recovery from the second-worst economic downturn of the past century, and we’re still not nearly back on track. Instead, we’ve had the most anemic recovery in history.

A Gallup survey released Thursday showed that the percentage of Americans holding full-time jobs has remained essentially unchanged over the past year. With 12 million people out of work and another 8 million holding part-time jobs who’d rather have full-time ones, this just isn’t nearly good enough.

We’re experiencing the burden of austerity economics and the continued scourge of widening inequality. Both are squeezing average Americans. Yet it’s impossible to have a buoyant and sustained recovery without a large and growing middle class.