Proponiamo oggi un interessante articolo da Project Syndicate che analizza l'andamento dei mercati negli ultimi mesi. I listini sono in continua crescita e ciò ha spinto molti commentatori a sostenere che, in effetti, l'austerity sta funzionando a dovere. Tra questi non poteva mancare Alberto Alesina, il principale sostenitore della tesi dei tagli che portano crescita. In realtà, come sostenuto da Bradford DeLong, usare i risultati dei listini come proxy del successo economico è assolutamente fuorviante. In realtà la quantità impressionante di liquidità versata sui mercati viene tutta canalizzata dalle borse, pompando verso l'altro il prezzo delle azioni - in realtà formando una nuova bolla, dato che queste valutazioni di borsa non corrispondono davvero all'andamento dell'economia reale. Insomma, la maggior parte del denaro prodotto, dei profitti, si ferma al top della scala sociale, peggiorando ulteriormente l'ineguaglianza. Ci troviamo così in una situazione di crescita stagnante, di concentrazione della ricchezza e di incremento della povertà. Se questo è quello che sperava di ottenere Alesina, sarà certo contento....
The Great Disconnect
di Kemal Dervis
da Project Syndicate
Since the second half of
2012, financial markets have recovered strongly worldwide. Indeed, in
the United States, the Dow Jones industrial average reached an all-time
high in early March, having risen by close to 9% since September. In
Europe, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “guns of August”
turned out to be remarkably effective. Draghi reversed the euro’s slide
into oblivion by promising potentially unlimited purchases of member
governments’ bonds. Between September 1 and February 22, the
FTSEurofirst index rose by almost 7%. In Asia, too, financial markets
are up since September, most dramatically in Japan.
Even
the Italian elections in late February seem not to have upset markets
too much (at least so far). Although interest-rate spreads for Italian
and Spanish ten-year bonds
relative to German bonds briefly jumped 30-50 basis points after the
results were announced, they then eased to 300-350 basis points,
compared to 500-600 basis points before the ECB’s decision to establish
its “outright monetary transactions” program.
But
this financial market buoyancy is at odds with political events and
real economic indicators. In the US, economic performance improved only
marginally in 2012, with annual GDP rising by 2.3%, up from 1.8% in 2011. Unemployment remained high, at 7.8% at the end of 2012, and there has been almost no real wage growth over the last few years. Median household income
in the US is still below its 2007 level – indeed, close to its level
two decades ago – and roughly 90% of all US income gains in the
post-crisis period have accrued to the top 1% of households.
Indicators
for the eurozone are even worse. The economy contracted in 2012, and
wages declined, despite increases in Germany and some northern
countries. Reliable statistics are not yet available, but poverty in
Europe’s south is increasing for the first time in decades.
On
the political front, the US faces a near-complete legislative
stalemate, with no sign of a compromise that could lead to the optimal
policy mix: short-term support to boost effective demand and long-term
structural reforms and fiscal consolidation. In Europe, Greece has been
able – so far – to maintain a parliamentary majority in support of the
coalition government, but there, and elsewhere, hyper-populist parties
are gaining ground.
The
Italian election results could be a bellwether for Europe. Beppe
Grillo’s populist Five Star Movement emerged with 25% of the popular
vote – the highest support for any single party. Former Prime Minister
Silvio Berlusconi, confounding those who had forecast his political
demise, re-emerged at the head of a populist-rightist coalition that
ended up only 0.3 percentage points away from winning.
In
short, we are witnessing a rapid decoupling between financial markets
and inclusive social and economic well-being. In the US and many other
places, corporate profits as a share of national income are at a
decades-long high, in part owing to labor-saving technology in a
multitude of sectors. Moreover, large corporations are able to take full
advantage of globalization (for example, by arbitraging tax regimes to
minimize their payments).
As
a result, the income of the global elite is growing both rapidly and
independently of what is happening in terms of overall output and
employment growth. Demand for luxury goods is booming, alongside weak
demand for goods and services consumed by lower-income groups.
All
of this is happening in the midst of extremely expansionary monetary
policies and near-zero interest rates, except in the countries facing
immediate crisis. Structural concentration of incomes at the top is
combining with easy money and a chase for yield, driving equity prices
upward.
And
yet, despite widespread concern and anxiety about poverty,
unemployment, inequality, and extreme concentration of incomes and
wealth, no alternative growth model has emerged. The opposition to the
dominant mainstream in Europe is split between what is still too often
an “old” left that has trouble adjusting to twenty-first-century
realities, and populist, anti-foreigner, and sometimes outright fascist
parties on the right.
In
the US, the far right shares many of the characteristics of its
populist European counterparts. But it is a tribute to the American
two-party system’s capacity for political integration that extremist
forces remain marginalized, despite the rhetoric of the Tea Party.
President Barack Obama, in particular, has been able to attract support
as a liberal-left idealist and as a centrist-realist at the same time,
which enabled him to win re-election in the face of a weak economy and
an even weaker labor market.
Nonetheless,
without deep socio-economic reforms, America’s GDP growth is likely to
be slow at best, while its political system seems paralyzed. Nowhere is
there a credible plan to limit the concentration of wealth and power,
broaden economic gains through strong real-income growth for the poor,
and maintain macroeconomic stability.
The
absence of such a plan in the US (and in Europe) has contributed to the
decoupling of financial markets from inclusive economic progress,
because it suggests that current trends are politically sustainable.
But, while this disconnect could continue for some time if no
alternative program emerges, the huge gap between financial markets’
performance and most people’s well-being is unlikely to persist in the
longer term. When asset prices overshoot reality, eventually they have
nowhere to go but down.
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