Visualizzazione post con etichetta Chavez. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta Chavez. Mostra tutti i post

domenica 24 marzo 2013

L'eredità di Chavez e la terza via


The Chávez Way



di Robert Skidelsky
da Project Syndacate

I remember the exact date of my visit to Venezuela. I was sunbathing by the pool on the roof of the Caracas Hilton. A waiter came up to me and mumbled something about a bomb attack in New York. I rushed to my room and saw the news footage, endlessly replayed, of two airplanes crashing into the World Trade Center.
I was in Venezuela on September 11, 2001, to attend a conference on the “Third Way.” Hugo Chávez was very interested in the Third Way – a modus vivendi between American-style capitalism and state socialism – as had been Tony Blair a few years earlier. Chávez himself, dressed in fatigues, briefly graced the meeting with his presence, receiving a heavy volume of Marxist texts from an elderly professor.
A day earlier, I had had lunch at the Venezuelan central bank, sitting next to the deputy governor, Gastón Parra Luzardo. He told me that all Venezuelans believed that they had been born with a “loaf under their arm” – that is, a right to a share in the country’s oil revenues. As a result, no one worked hard. An economist, Orlando Ochoa, explained that rent-seeking dominated the Venezuelan economy. Oligarchs fight to keep control over the oil revenues, populists promise to redistribute them, and both groups steal as much as they can for themselves. No one is interested in creating wealth.
“No one,” I wrote in my diary, “believes that Chávez will last his full term. They see him as a damaging buffoon, rather than as a dangerous revolutionary.” In fact, a coup against him was attempted a year later. He survived it, and went on to win a second, a third, and then a fourth term.
The debate over Chávez’s political legacy is a posthumous re-enactment of the ideological battles that were fought while he was alive. The battle for his economic legacy is more straightforward: it comes down to how he managed Venezuela’s oil wealth.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, and Chávez’s economic strategy depended on harnessing that wealth in order to address his country’s social problems. The first few years of his rule were dominated by his struggle to gain control of the country’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA.
Upon reasserting political control in 2003, Chávez fired 40% of PDVSA’s staff. His hostility to foreign players in the industry (he expropriated several American oil companies’ holdings in 2007) limited investment and held back production. Chávez turned PDVSA into a personal fiefdom and used it as a cash cow; many of his social programs were funded directly from the company’s budget.
Starved of cash, PDVSA was forced to cut back on maintenance and expansion, which increased the number of accidents and limited production. Thanks partly to Chávez’s policies, Venezuela is still a small player in the global oil market, with less than a 3% share of world production. It is therefore vulnerable to price fluctuations, and has to follow the lead of Saudi Arabia and other big OPEC producers.
Though Venezuela’s non-oil sector has been growing, oil still provides the vast majority of its dollar earnings. For the past decade, booming oil prices have spurred economic expansion, with only a short break following the financial crisis of 2008. Yet stumbling oil-export performance and a sharp rise in infrastructure-related imports, combined with an explosive growth in public spending, have fueled consistently high levels of inflation, with the annual rate now at more than 20%.
This has put immense pressure on Venezuela’s dollar-pegged currency, the bolívar. In early 2013, the government was forced to announce a 32% devaluation, and stopped issuing government debt in dollars. The issuance of dollar bonds was a major source of abuse, with speculators buying dollar debt at the official exchange rate, selling it for greenbacks, and then exchanging them for bolivars at a much higher rate on the black market.
With limited access to global capital markets, Chávez turned to China for loans, backed by sales contracts for oil. Loans from the China Development Bank carry higher interest rates than the West’s traditional lending mechanisms, but they also come with fewer restrictions on policy, and allowed Venezuela to escape the worst of the bondholders’ wrath – at least so far.
Where has the oil wealth gone? Chávez’s social programs were the biggest beneficiaries. He used to go around the villages writing checks to poor farmers. The most reliable data suggest that he was successful at reducing inequality; during his rule, Venezuela’s Gini coefficient, a 100-point scale measuring income inequality, fell from 50 to 39, the biggest decline in Latin America. Poverty was cut in half – from 50% to around 25% of the population, while extreme poverty fell by two-thirds.
One can hardly say that every céntimo was well spent. Cronyism was rife and the murder rate tripled, partly owing to corruption in the police and the justice system. Chávez’s petro-diplomacy sometimes took bizarre forms, like providing cheap bus travel for Londoners to please London’s left-wing mayor, Ken Livingstone.
Despite his extravagancies and authoritarian style, the masses loved him. They fervently believed that he was on their side, and voted overwhelmingly for him up to the end, even when they knew that he was dying of cancer. He is sure to enter the pantheon of Latin American heroes.
And what about the Third Way? In the aftermath of the collapse of communism, Chávez’s mix of anti-Americanism and state activism seemed merely eccentric. There could be no alternative to free markets and the neoliberal Washington Consensus – or so it appeared.
But the rise of China, the relative decline of the United States, the long boom in commodity prices, and the Western financial collapse of 2008 have created space for political and economic experiments. Chávez took advantage of that opening, and Chávezism may well prove to be a significant phenomenon far beyond its Latin American homeland.

venerdì 8 marzo 2013

Chavez, la democrazia e la crisi

Un post in spagnolo del poeta Luis Garcia Montero che non parla tanto di Chavez, quanto del paternalismo ipocrita con cui i media spagnoli (e quelli italiani, pure peggio, con poche eccezioni, tipo Piergiorgio Odifreddi) hanno raccontato la sua morte e soprattutto la sua storia politica. Senza pensare a che triste fine sta facendo la democrazia occidentale. Forse avremmo tutti qualcosa da imparare
La traduzione italiana sotto l'originale.


di Luis Garcia Montero
da Público

No quiero hablar de Hugo Chávez. Ya son muchos los artículos publicados a raíz de su muerte y es previsible que aparezcan muchos más. Se seguirá hablando durante años de su figura histórica y de su significado en la política latinoamericana. Así son las cosas.

Prefiero escribir sobre la sensación de vergüenza ajena que me han despertado algunos comentarios paternalistas sobre Chávez, Venezuela y el futuro inmediato. En nombre de la Democracia, políticos españoles importantes han deseado una transición pacífica para la sociedad venezolana después de la muerte de su líder carismático. ¿En nombre de la Democracia? ¿Pero en qué país se creen que viven estos paladines de la cultura occidental que critican a Chávez de forma abierta o le perdonan la vida de manera piadosa ahora que está muerto?

Si hablamos del presente, no entiendo que un país marcado por la corrupción y gobernado por un partido bajo sospecha pueda dar lecciones a nadie. Es muy grave lo que estamos viviendo nosotros. Con la estrategia del silencio, con ruedas de prensa sin preguntas, con mentiras capaces de enrojecer a un sargento de caballería, siguen al frente de la política española personas sospechosas de haber participado en tramas de corrupción y de haber recibido sobres con dinero negro.

También puede abordarse el asunto desde la perspectiva económica. Durante el mandato de Chávez se ha reducido la pobreza en Venezuela por encima del 20 %, según los datos más objetivos. Uno piensa que para eso debe servir la política en una democracia, para equilibrar la vida de la gente y hacer que los pobres sean menos pobres. España, como parte de Europa, vive una situación caracterizada por el asalto de los poderes financieros a la soberanía popular. Las instituciones políticas quedan inutilizadas y se someten a los ámbitos de decisión de intereses opacos que tienen que ver con las exigencias de los bancos y los especuladores. La acumulación elitista de la riqueza vuelve a ser la norma de conducta. Y dentro de este asalto especulador que sufre la democracia europea, España supone un caso extremo. La debilidad cívica que tejió la Transición y la permanencia de las élites económicas y sociales del franquismo han facilitado que en poco tiempo se liquiden muchas de las humildes conquistas conseguidas por la lucha obrera en sus batallas contra la dictadura. La población española se empobrece, baja el nivel de vida y suben los índices de miseria y de desnutrición infantil. ¿A quién le van a dar lecciones de democracia nuestros padres de la patria? La privatización de la sanidad, la justicia y la educación públicas no suponen una buena tarjeta de visita para dar consejos democráticos a nadie.
¿Y si hablamos de populismo? Es que puede opinar sobre el tema, y en nombre de la seriedad de la razón, un país gobernado por un presidente como el nuestro. Sin ningún tipo de pudor, ha llegado a declarar que el cumplimiento de su deber ha consistido en no cumplir sus promesas electorales. ¿Qué es entonces una campaña electoral? ¿Una convocatoria de arengas populistas, mentiras, argumentos demagógicos, promesas falsas y movilización de rencores? El horizonte de la política española se parece cada vez más a una tertulia de telebasura. Basta para comprobarlo con seguir las acusaciones y las amenazas del ministro de Economía. Como una verdulera del corazón, calla las bocas de sus críticos sugiriendo que los actores, los políticos, los medios del comunicación y los partidos se acuestan con el fraude fiscal. Y él –que todo lo sabe- no hace nada por perseguir a los defraudadores y acabar con el adulterio.

Si hablamos de memoria histórica, no hace falta tampoco entrar en muchos detalles. Mientras algunos países latinoamericanos, cumpliendo con el derecho internacional, suspendieron las leyes de punto final para investigar los crímenes y reparar a las víctimas de sus dictaduras, en España se ha expulsado de la carrera judicial al magistrado que quiso amparar a los familiares de los desaparecidos. Fue el mismo juez que cometió la imprudencia de querer investigar a fondo la corrupción. El rey de España, que en un arrebato borbónico mandó callar a Hugo Chávez, es un jefe de Estado que se formó en los brazos de Francisco Franco, que fue nombrado heredero por un dictador y que ha representado durante casi cuarenta años a su país sin pasar por las urnas. ¿Se imaginan a un lugarteniente de Hitler presidiendo en la actualidad al Estado alemán y mandando callar a un presidente elegido por sus ciudadanos?

El verdadero problema de los demócratas tiene hoy mucho más que ver con la situación institucional española y europea que con el populismo latinoamericano. Por eso da vergüenza ajena escuchar algunos comentarios. ¿Por qué no se callan?

fonte: http://blogs.publico.es/luis-garcia-montero/396/nuestros-democratas-y-chavez-por-que-no-se-callan/

Traduzione del post di Luis García Montero* apparso sulla sua rubrica “La realidad y el deseo”, su Publico.es.

I nostri democrati e Chávez: ma perché non stanno zitti?

Non voglio parlare di Hugo Chávez. Sono già molti gli articoli pubblicati in occasione della sua morte ed è prevedibile che ne appaiano molti altri. Si continuerà a parlare per anni della sua figura storica e del suo significato nella politica latinoamericana. Cosí è.

Preferisco scrivere della sensazione di profonda vergogna che hanno destato in me alcuni commenti paternalisti su Chávez, il Venezuela ed il futuro immediato. In nome della Democrazia, politici spagnoli importanti hanno augurato una transizione pacifica alla società venezuelana dopo la morte del loro carismatico leader. In nome della Democrazia? Ma in che Paese credono di vivere questi paladini della cultura occidentale che criticano Chávez apertamente o lo graziano con commiserazione ora che è morto?
Se parliamo del presente, non concepisco che un Paese segnato dalla corruzione e governato da un partito sospettato possa dare lezioni a qualcuno. E’ molto grave ciò che stiamo vivendo. Con la strategia del silenzio, con conferenze stampa senza domande, con bugie capaci di far arrossire un sergente di cavalleria, continuano a guidare la politica spagnola persone sospettate di aver partecipato a trame di corruzione e di aver ricevuto buste di denaro in nero.

La faccenda si può affrontare anche dalla prospettiva economica. Durante il mandato di Chávez si è ridotta la povertà in Venezuela di oltre il 20%, in base ai dati più obbiettivi. Uno pensa che la politica dbba servire a questo in una democrazia, a equilibrare la vita della gente e fare in modo che i poveri siano meno poveri. La Spagna, cosí come parte dell’Europa, vive una situazione caratterizzata dall’assalto dei poteri della finanza alla sovranità popolare. Le istituzioni politiche rimangono inutilizzate e si sottomettono agli ambiti decisionali di interessi opachi che hanno a che vedere con le esigenze delle banche e degli speculatori. L’accumulazione elitista della ricchezza torna ad esserela norma di condotta. E all’interno di questo assalto speculatore patito dalla democrazia europea, la Spagna rappresenta un caso estremo. La debolezza civica intessuta dalla Transizione e la permanenza delle élites economiche e sociali del franchismo hanno facilitato che in poco tempo si liquidino molte delle umili conquiste ottenute dalla lotta operaia nelle sue battaglie contro la dittatura. La popolazione spagnola si impoverisce, scende il livello di vita e si impennano gli indici della miseria e della denutrizione infantile. A chi vogliono dare lezioni di democrazia i nostri padri della patria? La privatizzazione della sanità, della giustizia e dell’educazione pubblica non rappresentano un bel biglietto da visita per dare consigli democratici a qualcuno.

E se parliamo di populismo? Può forse opinare su questo argomento , e nel nome della serietà e della ragione, un Paese governato da un presidente come il nostro? Senza nessun tipo di pudore è arrivato a dichiarare perfino che compiere il suo dovere consisteva nel non mantenere le sue promesse elettorali. Cos’è dunque una campagna elettorale? Una convocazione di arringhe populiste, bugie, argomenti demagogici, false promesse e mobilitazione di rancori? L’orizzonte della politica spagnola assomiglia sempre più ad un crocchio di telepattumiera. Per verificarlo basta seguire le accuse e le minacce del ministro di Economia. Come un’erbivendola di quelle che appaiono nei programmi rosa, zittisce chi lo critica insinuando che gli attori, i politici, i media ed i partiti vanno a letto con la frode fiscale. E lui, che è al corrente di tutto, non fa nulla per perseguire i frodatori e mettere fine all’adulterio.

Nemmeno se parliamo di memoria storica è necessario entrare in particolari.
Mentre alcuni paesi latinoamericani, rispettando le regole del diritto internazionale, sospesero le leggi che pretendevano di mettere il punto finale alle indagini sui crimini e al risarcimento alle vittime delle loro dittature, in Spagna è stato espulso dalla magistratura il magistrato che ha voluto proteggere i familiari degli scomparsi. Lo stesso giudice che commise l’imprudenza di voler indagare a fondo sulla corruzione.

Il re di Spagna, che in un’uscita dai gangheri borbonica ordinò a Chávez di stare zitto, è un capo di Stato che si è formato in braccio a Francisco Franco, che fu nominato erede da un dittatore e che ha rappresentato per quasi 40 anni il proprio Paese senz a passare dalle urne. Potreste immaginare che un luogotenente di Hitler fosse attualmente a capo dello Stato tedesco e facesse tacere un presidente eletto dai suoi cittadini?
Il vero problema dei democrati oggi ha molto più a che fare con la situazione istituzionale spagnola ed europea che con il populismo latinoamericano. Per questo provoca profonda vergogna sentire certi commenti. Perchè non stanno zitti?

*Luis García Montero è una delle principali figure del panorama della poesia spagnola contemporanea. E’ anche critico letterario e saggista.
(Traduzione a cura di Monica Bedana)




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giovedì 7 marzo 2013

Il Venezuela e il futuro del modello chavista


Il seguente saggio e' tratto da un articolo pubblicato su Aspenia nell'Ottobre 2012, all'indomani della vittoria di Chavez alle elezioni presidenziali. Un articolo che ci aiuta a capire le dinamiche interne ed internazionali che hanno caratterizzato la storia politica di Hugo Chavez 


di Michele Testoni
versione completa su Aspenia n.59 

Lo scorso 7 ottobre Hugo Chávez è stato rieletto, per la terza volta consecutiva, Presidente del Venezuela. E, nonostante le pressioni, le accuse reciproche e gli scontri anche violenti, in un contesto di sostanziale regolarità e trasparenza. In virtù del referendum costituzionale del 2009, che ha abolito il consueto vincolo del doppio mandato, estendendo “ad libitum” l’eleggibilità di tutte le cariche elettive, ora Chávez potrà governare sino, almeno, il 2019. Vent’anni di potere dal 1998, cioè dall’avvio della rivoluzione bolivariana.
La situazione venezuelana non può essere più considerata come l’ennesima involuzione autoritaria di un’effimera repubblica delle banane, o come il prodotto di uno stravagante caudillo terzomondista ma ancora figlio di una società fondata sul connubio, tutto latino, di assistenzialismo statalista, corruzione e machismo. Piuttosto, comprendere le ragioni del consolidamento del chavismo, sia in chiave domestica che internazionale, richiede collocarne la nascita e il significato all’interno del complesso di relazioni politiche, economiche e culturali globali in cui è situata la parabola evolutiva dell’America Latina, e del Venezuela anzitutto.
Quella di Chávez era una vittoria largamente attesa, ma dalle dimensioni differenti rispetto al passato e, per questo, dalle conseguenze molteplici. Il fatto più significativo è stata la maggiore contendibilità del voto (.......) [T]ra 2006 e 2012 il vantaggio di Chávez sul candidato di opposizione è sceso da 3,1 a 1,6 milioni di voti. Ovvero, si è dimezzato.
Le ragioni di tale evoluzione derivano dalle controverse peculiarità del chavismo, una sorta di Giano bifronte costituito da forti contraddizioni politiche, economiche e sociali interne, e con ampie ripercussioni internazionali. Un sistema di governo e sviluppo nuovo, almeno per i suoi sostenitori, auto-proclamatosi “socialismo del XXI secolo” e fondato sullo schema “più Stato e meno mercato”. Una democrazia guidata, intrisa di populismo anti-colonialista e pretorianesimo giacobino, un ibrido di castrismo e peronismo attratto dalla Russia di Putin e dall’Iran di Ahmadinejad.
Il Venezuela è un attore chiave del Sud America: al quarto posto per ampiezza demografica e dimensione economica, è soprattutto il maggiore esportatore continentale di petrolio, dodicesimo a livello mondiale. Attraverso la PDVSA, la compagnia petrolifera statale, Chávez ha sfruttato appieno l’incremento dei prezzi energetici, determinato non solo da una crescente domanda globale, ma anche da una controllata riduzione dell’offerta di greggio da parte dell’OPEC (di cui il Venezuela è membro fondatore) volta ad accrescere ulteriormente i ricavi delle esportazioni.
Il boom petrolifero è stato il volano delle politiche sociali, le “missioni bolivariane”, il fiore all’occhiello di Chávez. Nei suoi quattordici anni di governo, il livello medio di salari e pensioni è cresciuto, la disoccupazione si è dimezzata, e il livello di indigenza è diminuito. I tassi di alfabetizzazione e scolarizzazione sono aumentati, e l’assistenza sanitaria gratuita è stata estesa alla massa delle grandi baraccopoli di Caracas, dove sono nati anche mercati agricoli a prezzi assai contenuti. Ciò ha reso il regime pù forte, legittimandolo sia nei confronti dei poveri che verso i gruppi dominanti del paese, cioè i militari e la borghesia commerciale. Una solidità che, malgrado la vasta manipolazione dei media e l’uso dell’apparato pubblico come ammortizzatore sociale a fini politico-elettorali, ha comunque permesso di mantenere in vita un certo pluralismo partitico e dell’informazione.
Le difficoltà del Venezuela, tuttavia, sono evidenti. A causa della crisi economica mondiale, la diminuzione della domanda, dunque del prezzo, di greggio si è tradotta in una brusca contrazione del PIL (nel 2011 il tasso di crescita è stato del 2,8%, il peggiore dell’intero Sud America). Fra 2009 e 2011 il bolivar è stato svalutato quasi del 100% rispetto al dollaro: la bilancia commerciale rimane positiva, ma l’inflazione è schizzata al 28%, in una reazione a catena fatta di cambi di valuta illegali, carenze di generi alimentari (in larga parte importati) e blackout elettrici sempre più numerosi. A tutto svantaggio dei meno abbienti e della stabilità del bilancio pubblico. (......)

Il principale problema nazionale è però il crimine dilagante. Per l’Osservatorio Venezuelano sulla Violenza, nel 2011 sono state uccise oltre 19.000 persone, con un tasso di 48 omicidi ogni 100.000 abitanti (la media globale è di 8,8). Dati che ne fanno il paese il più pericoloso di tutta l’America Latina, ancor più di Colombia e Messico, secondo solo all’Honduras. Uno degli aspetti più inquietanti di questa spirale di violenza è il numero di poliziotti uccisi: circa 80, finora, nella sola Caracas, in molti casi per mano di ragazzi giovanissimi. Per Moisés Naím il crescente potere delle organizzazioni dedite ai traffici di armi, droga, estorsioni e rapimenti, unito alla corrotta inefficienza del sistema amministrativo e giudiziario, sta trasformando il Venezuela in uno “Stato mafia””.
Eppure Chávez ha rivinto, e il suo successo trascende i confini del Venezuela. Non già per la trasformazione sempre più autocratica, ancorché legittimata democraticamente, del suo governo; quanto per il forte valore che esso assume a livello internazionale. Pur con difficoltà economiche evidenti, corruzione e criminalità diffuse, e autoritarismo ormai consolidato, dal 1998 Chávez mantiene e rafforza la maggioranza del consenso popolare attraverso un tipo di leadership che in breve è diventata uno dei modelli alternativi di maggiore successo alla globalizzazione dell’unipolarismo neo-liberista, soprattutto per quella nouvelle vague di leader politici sudamericani emersa proprio nell’ultimo quindicennio.
Il sentimento di emancipazione delle masse popolari contro l’aristocrazia compradora al soldo di dominatori stranieri (iberici prima, statunitensi poi) è tra le caratteristiche più rilevanti della storia e della cultura politica dell’America Latina. Nel Novecento la sovrapposizione tra anti-imperialismo e anti-americanismo ha prodotto una lunga ed eterogenea schiera di politici e intellettuali rivoluzionari – da José Martí a Rubén Darío, da Emiliano Zapata ad Augusto Sandino, da Fidel Casto a Che Guevara, da Juan Perón a Salvador Allende – accomunati, almeno a parole, dalla difesa di poveri e diseredati e da politiche economiche interventiste volte alla nazionalizzazione dei capitali produttivi per scopi domestici.
Chávez e il chavismo derivano, in larga misura, da questa temperie. Nel corso degli anni il Venezuela, uno dei pochi paesi sudamericani con una solida borghesia mercantile, è scivolato verso un sistema sempre più corrotto e instabile, costellato di ricorrenti colpi di stato militari. L’enorme ricchezza petrolifera veniva pagata a basso prezzo dalle corporation straniere, e i suoi ricavi non erano utilizzati per sostenere lo sviluppo del paese e l’espansione della classe media, ma soprattutto per rafforzare il potere di un’elite ossequiosa ai dettami della dollar diplomacy statunitense. Da qui la scarsa credibilità dell’opposizione anti-chavista cui Capriles, però, è riuscito a dare un volto nuovo e più presentabile.
La politica estera chavista non si inquadra in una logica anti-occidentale perché anti-democratica, bensì in una anti-americana perché anti-colonialista. Il suo obiettivo non può che essere un’evoluzione multipolare del sistema internazionale. Così si spiegano l’amicizia con la Cina, l’Iran e la Russia nonché, in particolare, il sostegno ad altre leadership rivoluzionarie in Sud America. Chávez ha sostenuto le FARC in Colombia, l’odiato vicino, ma è stato anzitutto il promotore del gruppo ALBA, il rassemblement delle nazioni latinoamericane di ispirazione bolivariana originato dall’alleanza tra Venezuela e Cuba del 2004 a cui si sono aggiunti, finora, altri sei paesi (in particolare la Bolivia, l’Ecuador e il Nicaragua).
Ancora più rilevante è stato, quest’estate, l’ingresso del Venezuela nel MERCOSUR, la principale organizzazione di integrazione economica regionale fondata da Argentina e Brasile nel 1991 insieme a Paraguay e Uruguay, e oggi asse portante dell’UNASUR, la sua estensione a tutto il Sud America. Un grande risultato perché offre al regime una piena legittimazione internazionale, non più ristretta a una periferia di paesi di scarsa credibilità, ma ora proveniente dai principali attori regionali. Non è un caso, infatti, che il primo leader straniero a congratulare Chávez per la sua rielezione sia stata la Presidente dell’Argentina, Cristina Fernández, una delle figure più attive (e discusse) del panorama politico sudamericano.
Il successo di Chávez rappresenta anche una battuta d’arresto per il “nuovo corso” della politica estera latinoamericana degli USA. Abbandonato il disastroso neo-imperialismo di Bush, l’amministrazione Obama ha adottato un approccio più soft. Con l’Asia al centro dei propri interessi strategici, Washington ha favorito la creazione, avvenuta lo scorso giugno, dell’Alleanza del Pacifico, una nuova zona di libero scambio orientata ai mercati dell’Estremo Oriente costituita da Cile, Colombia, Messico e Perù (oggi i principali alleati di Washington nella regione). Una sorta di caucus all’interno dell’APEC e, per certi versi, il tentativo di creare un’aggregazione alternativa a un MERCOSUR sempre più “fortezza latina”. (....)
Ciò che rende il chavismo un fenomeno peculiare è l’apprezzamento di cui gode in larga parte dell’America Latina, un risultato che nessun altro movimento politico, né il castrismo né il peronismo, era riuscito a ottenere. (.....)



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Cosa rimarra' di Chavez

Proponiamo qui di seguito un articolo di The Nation che ci racconta i rapporti tra Venezuela ed America, l'avventura del Chavismo, i suoi limiti e le sue forze e la sua evoluzione. Una analisi chiara e diretta per inquadrare Chavez nel suo continente e nella sua storia.


On the Legacy of Hugo Chávez    


di Greg Grandin
da The Nation

I first met Hugo Chávez in New York City in September 2006, just after his infamous appearance on the floor of the UN General Assembly, where he called George W. Bush the devil. “Yesterday, the devil came here,” he said, “Right here. Right here. And it smells of sulfur still today, this table that I am now standing in front of.” He then made the sign of the cross, kissed his hand, winked at his audience and looked to the sky. It was vintage Chávez, an outrageous remark leavened with just the right touch of detail (the lingering sulfur!) to make it something more than bombast, cutting through soporific nostrums of diplomatese and drawing fire away from Iran, which was in the cross hairs at that meeting.
The press of course went into high dudgeon, and not just for the obvious reason that it’s one thing for opponents in the Middle East to call the United States the Great Satan and another thing for the president of a Latin American country to personally single out its president as Beelzebub, on US soil no less.
I think what really rankled was that Chávez was claiming a privilege that had long belonged to the United States, that is, the right to paint its adversaries not as rational actors but as existential evil. Latin American populists, from Argentina’s Juan Perón to, most recently, Chávez, have long served as characters in a story the US tells about itself, reaffirming the maturity of its electorate and the moderation of its political culture. There are at most eleven political prisoners in Venezuela, and that’s taking the opposition’s broad definition of the term, which includes individuals who worked to overthrow the government in 2002, and yet it is not just the right in this country who regularly compared Chávez to the worst mass murderers and dictators in history. New Yorker critic Alex Ross, in an essay published a few years back celebrating the wunderkind Venezuelan conductor of the Los Angeles Philharmonic, Gustavo Dudamel, fretted about enjoying the fruits of Venezuela’s much-lauded government-funded system of music training: “Stalin, too, was a great believer in music for the people.”
* * *
Hugo Chávez was the second of seven children, born in 1954 in the rural village of Sabaneta, in the grassland state of Barinas, to a family of mixed European, Indian and Afro-Venezuelan race. Bart Jones’s excellent biography, Hugo! nicely captures the improbability of Chávez’s rise from dirt-floor poverty—he was sent to live with his grandmother since his parents couldn’t feed their children—through the military, where he became involved with left-wing politics, which in Venezuela meant a mix of international socialism and Latin America’s long history of revolutionary nationalism. It drew inspiration from well-known figures such as Simón Bolívar, as well as lesser-known insurgents, such as nineteenth-century peasant leader Ezequiel Zamora, in whose army Chávez’s great-great-grandfather had served. Born just a few days after the CIA drove reformist Guatemalan president Jacobo Arbenz from office, he was a young military cadet of 19 in September 1973 when he heard Fidel Castro on the radio announce yet another CIA-backed coup, this one toppling Salvador Allende in Chile.
Awash in oil wealth, Venezuela throughout the twentieth century enjoyed its own kind of exceptionalism, avoiding the extremes of left-wing radicalism and homicidal right-wing anticommunism that overtook many of its neighbors. In a way, the country became the anti-Cuba. In 1958, political elites negotiated a pact that maintained the trappings of democratic rule for four decades, as two ideological indistinguishable parties traded the presidency back and forth (sound familiar?). Where the State Department and its allied policy intellectuals isolated and condemned Havana, they celebrated Caracas as the end point of development. Samuel Huntington praised Venezuela as an example of “successful democratization,” while another political scientist, writing in the early 1980s, said it represented the “only trail to a democratic future for developing societies…a textbook case of step-by-step progress.”
We know now that its institutions were rotting from the inside out. Every sin that Chávez was accused of committing—governing without accountability, marginalizing the opposition, appointing partisan supporters to the judiciary, dominating labor unions, professional organizations and civil society, corruption and using oil revenue to dispense patronage—flourished in a system the United States held up as exemplary.
Petroleum prices began to fall in the mid-1980s. By this point, Venezuela had grown lopsidedly urban, with 16 million of its 19 million citizens living in cities, well over half of them below the poverty line, many in extreme poverty. In Caracas, combustible concentrations of poor people lived cut off from municipal services—such as sanitation and safe drinking water—and hence party and patronage control. The spark came in February 1989, when a recently inaugurated president who had run against the IMF said that he no choice but to submit to its dictates. He announced a plan to abolish food and fuel subsidies, increase gas prices, privatize state industries and cut spending on health care and education.
Three days of rioting and looting spread through the capital, an event that both marked the end of Venezuelan exceptionalism and the beginning of the hemisphere’s increasingly focused opposition to neoliberalism. Established parties, unions and government institutions proved entirely incapable of restoring legitimacy in austere times, committed as they were to upholding a profoundly unequal class structure.
Chávez emerged from the ruin, first with a failed putsch in 1992, which landed him in jail but turned him into a folk hero. Then in 1998, when he won 56 percent of the vote as a presidential candidate. Inaugurated in 1999, he took office committed to a broad yet vague anti-austerity program, a mild John Kenneth Galbraith–quoting reformer who at first had no power to reform anything. The esteem in which Chávez was held by the majority of Venezuelans, many of them dark-skinned, was matched by the rage he provoked among the country’s mostly white political and economic elites. But their maximalist program of opposition—a US-endorsed coup, an oil strike that destroyed the country’s economy, a recall election and an oligarch-media propaganda campaign that made Fox News seem like PBS—backfired. By 2005, Chávez had weathered the storm and was in control of the nation’s oil, allowing him to embark on an ambitious program of domestic and international transformation: massive social spending at home and “poly-polar equilibrium” abroad, a riff on what Bolívar once called “universal equilibrium,” an effort to break up the US’s historical monopoly of power in Latin America and force Washington to compete for influence.
* * *
Over the last fourteen years, Chávez has submitted himself and his agenda to fourteen national votes, winning thirteen of them by large margins, in polling deemed by Jimmy Carter to be “best in the world” out of the ninety-two elections that he has monitored. (It turns out it isn’t that difficult to have transparent elections: voters in Venezuela cast their ballot on an touch pad, which spits out a receipt they can check and then deposit in a box. At the end of the day, random polling stations are picked for ‘hot audits,’ to make sure the electronic and paper tallies add up). A case is made that this ballot-box proceduralism isn’t democratic, that Chávez dispenses patronage and dominates the media giving him an unfair advantage. But after the last presidential ballot—which Chávez won with the same percentage he did his first election yet with a greatly expanded electorate—even his opponents have admitted, despairingly, that a majority of Venezuelans liked, if not adored, the man.
I’m what they call a useful idiot when it comes to Hugo Chávez, if only because rank-and-file social organizations that to me seem worthy of support in Venezuela continued to support him until the end. My impressionistic sense is that this support breaks down roughly in half, between voters who think their lives and their families’ lives are better off because of Chávez’s massive expansion of state services, including healthcare and education, despite real problems of crime, corruption, shortages and inflation.
The other half of Chávez’s electoral majority is made up of organized citizens involved in one or the other of the country’s many grassroots organizations. Chávez’s social base was diverse and heterodox, what social scientists in the 1990s began to celebrate as “new social movements,” distinct from established trade unions and peasant organizations vertically linked to—and subordinated to—political parties or populist leaders: neighborhood councils; urban and rural homesteaders, feminists, gay and lesbian rights organizations, economic justice activists, environmental coalitions; breakaway unions and the like. It’s these organizations, in Venezuela and elsewhere throughout the region, that have over the last few decades done heroic work in democratizing society, in giving citizens venues to survive the extremes of neoliberalism and to fight against further depredations, turning Latin America into one of the last global bastion of the Enlightenment left.
Chávez’s detractors see this mobilized sector of the population much the way Mitt Romney saw 47 percent of the US electorate not as citizens but parasites, moochers sucking on the oil-rent teat. Those who accept that Chávez enjoyed majority support disparaged that support as emotional enthrallment. Voters, wrote one critic, see their own vulnerability in their leader and are entranced. Another talked about Chávez’s “magical realist” hold over his followers.
One anecdote alone should be enough to give the lie to the idea that poor Venezuelans voted for Chávez because they were fascinated by the baubles they dangled in front of them. During the 2006 presidential campaign, the signature pledge of Chávez’s opponent was to give 3,000,000 poor Venezuelans a black credit card (black as in the color of oil) from which they could withdraw up to $450 in cash a month, which would have drained over $16 billion dollars a year from the national treasury (call it neoliberal populism: give to the poor just enough to bankrupt the government and force the defunding of services). Over the years, there’s been a lot of heavy theoretically breathing by US academics about the miasma oil wealth creates in countries like Venezuela, lulling citizens into a dreamlike state that renders them into passive spectators. But in this election at least, Venezuelans managed to see through the mist. Chávez won with over 62 percent of the vote.
Let’s set aside for a moment the question of whether Chavismo’s social-welfare programs will endure now that Chávez is gone and shelve the left-wing hope that out of rank-and-file activism a new, sustainable way of organizing society will emerge. The participatory democracy that took place in barrios, in workplaces and in the countryside over the last fourteen years was a value in itself, even if it doesn’t lead to a better world.
There’s been great work done on the ground by scholars such as Alejandro Velasco, Sujatha Fernandes, Naomi Schiller and George Ciccariello-Maher on these social movements that, taken together, lead to the conclusion that Venezuela might be the most democratic country in the Western Hemisphere. One study found that organized Chavistas held to “liberal conceptions of democracy and held pluralistic norms,” believed in peaceful methods of conflict resolution and worked to ensure that their organizations functioned with high levels of “horizontal or non-hierarchical” democracy. What political scientists would criticize as a hyper dependency on a strongman, Venezuelan activists understand as mutual reliance, as well as an acute awareness of the limits and shortcomings of this reliance.
Over the years, this or that leftist has pronounced themselves “disillusioned” with Chávez, setting out some standard drawn, from theory or history, and then pronouncing the Venezuelan leader as falling short. He’s a Bonapartist, wrote one. He’s no Allende, sighs another. To paraphrase the radical Republican Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln, nothing surprises these critics and therefore they are never surprising. But there are indeed many surprising things about Chavismo in relationship to Latin American history.
First, the military in Latin America is best known for its homicidal right-wing sadists, many of them trained by the United States, in places like the School of the Americas. But the region’s armed forces have occasionally thrown up anti-imperialists and economic nationalists. In this sense, Chávez is similar to Argentina’s Perón, as well as Guatemala’s Colonel Arbenz, Panama’s Omar Torrijos and Peru’s General Juan Francisco Velasco, who as president between 1968 and 1975 allied Lima with Moscow. But when they weren’t being either driven from office (Arbenz) or killed (Torrijos?), these military populists inevitably veered quickly to the right. Within a few years of his 1946 election, Perón was cracking down on unions, going as far as endorsing the overthrow of Arbenz in 1954. In Peru, the radical phase of Peru’s military government lasted seven years. Chávez, in contrast, was in office fourteen years, and he never turned nor repressed his base.
Second and related, for decades now social scientists have been telling us that the kind of mobilized regime Venezuela represents is pump-primed for violence, that such governments can only maintain energy through internal repression or external war. But after years of calling the oligarchy squalid traitors, Venezuela has seen remarkably little political repression—certainly less than Nicaragua in the 1980s under the Sandinistas and Cuba today, not to mention the United States.
Oil wealth has much to do with this exceptionalism, as it also did in the elite, top-down democracy that existed prior to Chávez. But so what? Chávez has done what rational actors in the neoliberal interstate order are supposed to do: he’s leveraged Venezuela’s comparative advantage not just to fund social organizations but give them unprecedented freedom and power.
* * *
Chávez was a strongman. He packed the courts, hounded the corporate media, legislated by decree and pretty much did away with any effective system of institutional checks or balances. But I’ll be perverse and argue that the biggest problem Venezuela faced during his rule was not that Chávez was authoritarian but that he wasn’t authoritarian enough. It wasn’t too much control that was the problem but too little.
Chavismo came to power through the ballot following the near total collapse of Venezuela’s existing establishment. It enjoyed overwhelming rhetorical and electoral hegemony, but not administrative hegemony. As such, it had to make significant compromises with existing power blocs in the military, the civil and educational bureaucracy and even the outgoing political elite, all of whom were loath to give up their illicit privileges and pleasures. It took near five years before Chávez’s government gained control of oil revenues, and then only after a protracted fight that nearly ruined the country.
Once it had access to the money, it opted not to confront these pockets of corruption and power but simply fund parallel institutions, including the social missions that provided healthcare, education and other welfare services being the most famous. This was both a blessing and a curse, the source of Chavismo’s strength and weakness.
Prior to Chávez, competition for government power and resources took place largely within the very narrow boundaries of two elite political parties. After Chávez’s election, political jockeying took place within “Chavismo.” Rather than forming a single-party dictatorship with an interventionist state bureaucracy controlling people’s lives, Chavismo has been pretty wide open and chaotic. But it significantly more inclusive than the old duopoly, comprised of at least five different currents: a new Bolivarian political class, older leftist parties, economic elites, military interests and the social movements mentioned above. Oil money gave Chávez the luxury of acting as a broker between these competing tendencies, allowing each to pursue their interests (sometimes, no doubt, their illicit interests) and deferring confrontations.
* * *
The high point of Chávez’s international agenda was his relationship with Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Latin American leader whom US foreign policy and opinion makers tried to set as Chávez’s opposite. Where Chávez was reckless, Lula was moderate. Where Chávez was confrontational, Lula was pragmatic. Lula himself never bought this nonsense, consistently rising to Chávez’s defense and endorsing his election.
For a good eight years they worked something like a Laurel and Hardy routine, with Chávez acting the buffoon and Lula the straight man. But each was dependent on the other and each was aware of this dependency. Chávez often stressed the importance of Lula’s election in late 2002, just a few months after April’s failed coup attempt, which gave him his first real ally of consequence in a region then still dominated by neoliberals. Likewise, the confrontational Chávez made Lula’s reformism that much more palatable. Wikileak documents reveal the skill in which Lula’s diplomats gently but firmly rebuffed the Bush administration’s pressure to isolate Venezuela.

Their inside-outside rope-a-dope was on full display at the November 2005 Summit of the Americas in Argentina, where the United States hoped to lock in its deeply unfair economic advantage with a hemisphere-wide Free Trade Agreement. In the meeting hall, Lula lectured Bush on the hypocrisy of protecting corporate agriculture with subsidies and tariffs even as it pushed Latin America to open its markets. Meanwhile, on the street Chávez led 40,000 protesters promising to “bury” the free trade agreement. The treaty was indeed derailed, and in the years that followed, Venezuela and Brazil, along with other Latin American nations, have presided over a remarkable transformation in hemispheric relations, coming as close as ever to achieving Bolívar’s “universal equilibrium.”
* * *
When I met Chávez in 2006 after his controversial appearance in the UN, it was at a small lunch at the Venezuelan consulate. Danny Glover was there, and he and Chávez talked the possibility of producing a movie on the life of Toussaint L’Ouverture, the former slave who led the Haitian Revolution.
Also present was a friend and activist who works on the issue of debt relief for poor countries. At the time, a proposal to relieve the debt owed to the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) by the poorest countries in the Americas had stalled, largely because mid-level bureaucrats from Argentina, Mexico and Brazil opposed the initiative. My friend lobbied Chávez to speak to Lula and Argentina’s president Néstor Kirchner, another of the region’s leftist leaders, and get them to jump-start the deal.
Chávez asked a number of thoughtful questions, at odds with the provocateur on display on the floor of the General Assembly. Why, he wanted to know, was the Bush administration in favor of the plan? My friend explained that some Treasury officials were libertarians who, if not in favor of debt relief, wouldn’t block the deal. “Besides,” he said, “they don’t give a shit about the IADB.” Chávez then asked why Brazil and Argentina were holding things up. Because, my friend said, their representatives to the IADB were functionaries deeply invested in the viability of the bank, and they thought debt abolition a dangerous precedent.
We later got word that Chávez had successfully lobbied Lula and Kirchner to support the deal. In November 2006, the IADB announced it would write off billions of dollars in debt to Nicaragua, Guyana, Honduras and Bolivia (Haiti would later be added to the list).
And so it was that the man routinely compared in the United States to Stalin quietly joined forces with the administration of the man he had just called Satan, helping to make the lives of some of the poorest people in America just a bit more bearable.

fonte: http://www.thenation.com/article/173212/legacy-hugo-chavez#

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mercoledì 6 marzo 2013

Chavez, limiti e successi



di Davide Sormani




Al di là dei toni eccessivi in un senso e nell'altro che si sono visti su Chavez, penso che ora si potrà arrivare a una valutazione più equilibrata del suo operato. Chavez ha alcuni meriti innegabili, con la sua retorica di estrema sinistra ha fatto apparire moderati e digeribili anche per gli USA dirigenti che solo qualche anno prima erano visti come fumo negli occhi, come per esempio Lula. Aveva una visione globale per l'America del sud, e non sono molti i leader politici (non solo in quella regione, guardiamo anche a casa nostra) ad avere un progetto politico indipendente da quello che dicono le grandi istituzioni internazionali. Chavez ha permesso uno spostamento a sinistra dell'intero continente che solo pochi anni prima di lui non era neanche lontanamente immaginabile. Inoltre ha finalmente fatto delle politiche sociali attente agli strati deboli della società venezuelana, alla gente che vive nelle favelas di Caracas. E poi sarà stato anche un antidemocratico, però quando fece il referendum per l'emendamento costituzionale lo perse, a dimostrazione che le elezioni in Venezuela forse tanto farlocche in questi anni non sono state. E un'opposizione che aveva tentato un golpe con l'appoggio dell'amministrazione Bush davvero non può pensare di dare lezioni di democrazia.

La sua politica ha avuto anche limiti oggettivi. Il tentativo di creare un'unione sudamericana è stato mal digerito nella stessa regione: difficile che giganti come Brasile e Argentina accettassero di accodarsi al piccolo Venezuela. Il suo uso politico delle risorse naturali (prezzi di favore per gli alleati politici) ha portato l'azienda petrolifera statale, la PDSVA a utili sempre più ridotti fino ad essere in perdita. Il tutto per un tentativo di unificazione politica che è stato in parte seguito solo da Cuba, Ecuador e Bolivia. Sul piano economico una grossa spesa, sul piano politico un risultato al di sotto delle attese. La sua retorica antiamericana è stata seguita da alcuni fatti evidenti in politica estera, ma non c'è mai stato un vero sganciamento economico: il petrolio venezuelano è molto pesante e chi lo può raffinare nel continente sono solo gi USA.

Ad ogni modo rimarranno le sue politiche sociali, se molti venezuelani hanno avuto accesso alle cure mediche e all'istruzione lo devono a lui. Per primo ha fatto capire che un politica non del tutto indipendente, ma comunque autonoma rispetto agli USA è possibile. Quanto basta per farlo passare alla storia come una grande figura, pur non scevra da grossi limiti e nonostante gli errori commessi. La questione è che cosa resterà dopo di lui: il suo progetto politico ha stentato anche con Chavez in vita. La sua politica estera ha funzionato solo in parte, le sue politiche sociali potrebbero avere dei costi non sostenibili anche in un futuro relativamente prossimo. La sua ideologia, se così la si può chiamare, è quantomeno confusa, un mix improbabile di cattolicesimo e marxismo-leninismo che ha delle fondamenta basate sulla sabbia. Difficile che si possa trovare un continuatore che prosegua le sue politiche negli stessi termini. D'altro canto Chavez è riuscito a cambiare alcune regole del gioco politico in Venezuela, è difficile anche che quanto lui ha fatto venga ora ignorato o dimenticato. In qualche modo resterà comunque un punto di riferimento.


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Hugo Chavez, il Venezuela e l'America Latina





Si può dire quello che si vuole, che Chavez fosse un dittatore - anche se il colpo di stato lo ha subito - che le elezioni in Venezuela fossero una farsa - anche se per anni i suoi avversari han comprato voti, controllato TV e le grandi aziende - che fosse un demagogo e un populista - e se questo vuol dire stare dalla parte dei poveri, ecco, sicuramente Chavez lo era.
Ha commesso i suoi errori e nessuno pensa che il Venezuela sia un paradiso in terra, è un paese povero dove la miseria è di casa. Ma dove i ricchi, in questi ultimi 10 anni, l'hanno fatta un po' meno da padroni, diversamente da tutta la storia del Paese, diversamente dal resto dell'America Latina.
Se milioni di poveri lo hanno votato, sarà difficile pensare che lo abbiano fatto solo in cambio di denaro o di favori. In tanti, in tantissimi, infatti per la maggioranza dei Venezuelani, Chavez ha rappresentato una speranza di un mondo, se non migliore, quanto meno un po' più giusto. Investimenti in educazione, nelle nuove generazioni, un orchestra di giovani, la Simon Bolivar (che già esisteva ma che ha avuto nuovo impulso con Chavez) che gira il mondo, giovani della favelas cui invece di dare in mano una pistola è stato dato in mano un violino. Sarà anche propaganda, ma è propaganda ben fatta.

Chavez non è stato il Che e neanche Fidel - che pure gli è per ora sopravvissuto. E' stato per tanti versi un personaggio pittoresco, un personaggio estremo. Un po' paranoico, si dirà, ma ci sarebbe da vedere chi non lo sarebbe dopo aver rischiato la pelle per mano della destra e degli americani.
Ed appunto, che gli USA gli abbiano fatto una guerra quasi aperta, in America Latina non può essere che una medaglia al valore. Vuol dire mettere gli interessi del popolo, della nazione, davanti agli interessi degli stranieri e del loro capitale. In un continente costruito sulle salme mai trovate dei desapaercidos, sulla povertà più oscena, sulle diseguaglianze peggiori del mondo, c'è da andare fieri di Hugo Chavez. E per tutti quelli che lamentano il fare plebiscitario e scarsamente democratico di Chavez, basterebbe ricordare i brogli alle elezioni messicane, o la pseudo-democrazia boliviana degli anni 90, che privatizzava l'acqua piovana. O l'Argentina di Menem e Caballo che ha messo in bancarotta stato e cittadini. Perché si, non era il più democratico dei presidenti, ma facile parlare di democrazia quando non si ha a che fare con oligarchi, multinazionali affamate, rabbia, paura, criminalità, povertà, continui tentativi di destabilizzazione e di colpi di stato. Quello che era e purtroppo ancora è l'America Latina.
Ma è stato proprio con Chavez che un continente ha cominciato a dire basta. Basta a Washington, al Fondo Monetario, alle multinazionali, basta ai ricchi che controllano il Sud America da secoli. E dopo Chavez altri hanno seguito, ribelli e moderati, argentini, brasiliani e boliviani, ma con qualcosa in comune, la speranza di un futuro migliore. Quello per cui lottava Chavez.
Hasta siempre, comandante.


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Chavez e il golpe



The revolution will not be televised - come si fa a cercare di fermare il cambiamento!

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Chavez e l'economia Venezuelana


Questo il PIL pro-capite del Venezuela sotto la presidenza di Chavez. Tanto male non deve aver poi fatto!

Venezuela GDP per capita PPP


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Petrolio, populismo e liberta'. Un ricordo di Chavez

Proponiamo di seguito un interessante reportage dal Venezuela, datato 2005, ma che da' un'idea equilibrata di cosa fosse il paese sotto Chavez. I suoi pregi, i suoi problemi. Poca propaganda, molti fatti.


Hugo Chávez and Petro Populism    


di Christian Parenti
da The Nation

The views from the slopes of Barrio San Agustín del Sur are spectacular. Tight passageways frame Caracas and the lush, cloud-draped Avila Mountain beyond. Along the neighborhood's rough cement steps, teenagers lounge around, flirting, arguing or lost in the cheap text-messaging functions of their cell phones. Ascending a nearby cliff is a small garbage dump. From afar its refuse looks like the sand in some ominous urban hourglass.
Research support was provided by the Investigative Fund of The Nation Institute.
Illiteracy, violence, disease and the listlessness of endemic unemployment have shaped the life of this barrio since landless squatters from the countryside first settled it about forty years ago. But much of that could be changing.
"Even though we have had problems, we are moving forward," says Carmen Guerrero, a woman in her late 40s who is one of San Agustín's most dedicated activists. "Here, we are all with President Chávez. Everybody except for maybe six families."
On the yellow walls of her living room are masks in the form of fashionable ladies' faces, a clock, a mirror and a small picture of Venezuela's populist president, Hugo Chávez Frías. Guerrero explains that she and her neighbors are studying in several government-created programs called missions and organizing themselves into committees to deal with everything from local and national election campaigns to sanitation and legalization of land titles.
Like most slums in Caracas, this community also has a state-owned, subsidized market, a soup kitchen, a number of small-scale cooperative businesses and a little two-story, octagonal, red-brick medical center. Upstairs two Cuban doctors live in cramped quarters; downstairs is a small waiting room and clinic.
Guerrero's neighbor, a young man named Carlos Martinez, is showing me around; he works with the local construction cooperative. They have a contract from the mayor's office to lay new drainage pipe in the barrio. Given the recent flooding, it is an important task. Later he shows me where a patch of ranchos--dirt-floored shacks made of corrugated tin and wood--are being replaced at government expense by solid, two-story brick homes.
For this little barrio and a thousand others like it, such changes mean a lot. Like two generations of Venezuelan politicians before him, Chávez has pledged sembrar el petróleo--to sow the oil. That is, to invest its profits in a way that transforms the very structure of Venezuela's economy. But what would that entail? Are social programs enough?
Lately Chávez has been talking about a "revolution within the revolution," about "transcending capitalism" and about "building a socialism for the twenty-first century." It is a discourse that frightens his enemies, electrifies his base and inspires the left throughout Latin America. After two decades of the US-promoted Washington Consensus--a cocktail of radical privatization, open markets and severe fiscal austerity--Latin America is an economic disaster marked by increasing poverty and inequality.
Taken as a whole and controlling for inflation, Latin America has grown little since the mid-1980s and hardly at all in the past seven years. With the entire region primed for social change, a new breed of populists and social democrats is coming to power. Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, in addition to Venezuela, have leftist governments of some sort, while Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru will hold presidential elections in 2006.
But a closer look at Venezuela reveals just how vexing and complicated a political and economic turn to the left can be, even in a country that is rich with oil and not deeply indebted.
Thus far, Venezuela's Bolivarian Revolution, named for South America's nineteenth-century liberator, Simón Bolívar, has deepened and politicized a pre-existing tradition of Venezuelan populism. Despite Chávez's often radical discourse, the government has not engaged in mass expropriations of private fortunes, even agricultural ones, nor plowed huge sums into new collectively owned forms of production. In fact, private property is protected in the new Constitution promulgated after Chávez came to power. What the government has done is spend billions on new social programs, $3.7 billion in the past year alone. As a result, 1.3 million people have learned to read, millions have received medical care and an estimated 35-40 percent of the population now shops at subsidized, government-owned supermarkets. Elementary school enrollment has increased by more than a million, as schools have started offering free food to students. The government has created several banks aimed at small businesses and cooperatives, redeployed part of the military to do public works and is building several new subway systems around the country. To boost agricultural production in a country that imports 80 percent of what it consumes, Chávez has created a land-reform program that rewards private farmers who increase productivity and punishes those who do not with the threat of confiscation.
The government has also structured many of its social programs in ways that force communities to organize. To gain title to barrio homes built on squatted land, people must band together as neighbors and form land committees. Likewise, many public works jobs require that people form cooperatives and then apply for a group contract. Cynics see these expanding networks of community organizations as nothing more than a clientelist electoral machine. Rank-and-file Chavistas call their movement "participatory democracy," and the revolution's intellectuals describe it as a long-term struggle against the cultural pathologies bred by all resource-rich economies--the famous "Dutch disease," in which the oil-rich state is expected to dole out services to a disorganized and unproductive population.
But for the moment, the Venezuelan battle against poverty is possible only because oil prices have been at record highs for several years, and the state owns most of the petroleum industry. All of Venezuela's oil and mining and most of its basic industry were nationalized in the mid-1970s. On average, oil sales make up 30 percent of Venezuelan GDP, provide half of state income and make up 80 percent of all Venezuelan exports.
Internal and often sympathetic critics of the reform process in Venezuela say it is one thing to "spend the oil" on social welfare; it is another altogether to "sow the oil" and create new collectively owned, productive, nonsubsidized industries that will generate wealth in an egalitarian and sustainable fashion.
"When the coup happened we realized we had to get involved or we would lose everything," explains Carmen Guerrero. She says she was always a Chávez supporter but was not very active until the April 2002 coup d'état against Chávez launched by Venezuela's main business council, its notoriously corrupt labor federation, dissident military officers and masses of middle- and upper-class Caraqueños. Declassified documents have since revealed that the CIA knew at least a week beforehand that a coup was planned, while other US government agencies, such as the National Endowment for Democracy, were channeling aid to the opposition.
"There is no going back now," says Guerrero. Then, very seriously, she adds: "I hugged Chávez at a rally. I don't know how I got through security. I guess because I am short. I can't explain the feeling, the emotion was so strong." She clutches her fists to her breast and looks away.
Guerrero started supporting Chávez in 1992, on that fateful day when the then-unknown 37-year-old colonel launched a failed coup of his own. When defeat appeared imminent, Chávez surrendered. To avoid a bloodbath he went on television and asked his compatriots who were still holding two cities to put down their weapons.
During that short live broadcast Chávez did two things that electrified the Venezuelan imagination. First, he took personal responsibility for the botched coup. This seemed to many viewers like a significant break from the standard political tradition of lying and blaming others for failure. Then, in explaining the defeat, Chávez said, "For now, the objectives that we have set for ourselves have not been achieved."
During the next two years, while Chávez was in prison studying, that key phrase--"for now," or por ahora in Spanish--became a rallying cry, a slogan of defiance painted on walls, a talisman of hope in an otherwise squalid and corrupt political landscape.
Guerrero's sentiments, down to the details about the coup and the por ahora speech, were echoed again and again in dozens of interviews throughout some of Caracas's poorest slums. The majority of people here--ranging from formerly apolitical housewives to hard-core veterans of the urban guerrilla movements of the 1970s--revere President Chávez. They view him as a political saint, a savior, the embodiment of a new national ideal.
But through Guerrero's open front door we can see the Modernist towers of offices, banks, hotels and luxury apartments in the other Caracas, a city that has grown fat on the vast oil fortunes flowing from Venezuela's subsoil.
It is this contrast between rich and poor--a contrast so visually obvious as to make the landscape of Caracas feel almost didactic--that animates Venezuelan politics. And in the other Caracas, the one with the country clubs, the citizens hate Chávez with an ardor as strong as the devotion one finds for him in the barrios. Just as the urban poor and campesinos love Chávez because of his swarthy, indigenous looks, tight curly hair and his rough, down-to-earth talk, so too are the wealthier classes driven apoplectic with rage by the fact that their president looks likes a construction worker or cab driver.
For six years Chávez and his supporters have battled this opposition, an enemy that Chávez has nicknamed los escuálidos, or "the weaklings." But the opposition has not always been so weak. It includes the privately owned mass media, which have been virulently and propagandistically hostile to the government, devoting days at a time to commercial-free attacks on it as "totalitarian" and "Castro communist." There was the armed coup, then the oil strike, which cost the economy an estimated $7.5 billion and led to severe shortages of gas, food and beer. As one consultant in the Planning Ministry said in all seriousness: "I thought the day we ran out of beer would be the day the country fell into anarchy and civil war."
There was also a prolonged public protest by a group of respected former generals who urged active soldiers to rebel. Then there was a series of violent protests by rightist street fighters calling themselves the Guarimbas, who set up burning barricades during early 2004.
Despite all this, Chávez and his political allies have won seven national ballots, including the approval of a new Constitution, an overhaul of the notoriously corrupt judiciary, two national legislative elections, two presidential elections and one attempted presidential recall.
Through it all, occasional armed clashes between hard-core Chavistas and opposition militants have left about twenty people on both sides dead or seriously wounded. And the Chávez government has enacted a media law that punishes slander with jail time and prohibits broadcast of the twenty-four-hour-a-day video loops that were an opposition favorite, drawing sharp criticism from press-freedom advocates. But there has been no major government campaign of repression, not even against the architects of the coup, many of whom are at liberty and still in Venezuela.
The barrio 23 de Enero (January 23) is to the Venezuelan left what Compton is to hip-hop: the home of its hard core. The barrio's eponym is the date of a popular uprising that took place in 1958 against dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez. Tucked into a Caracas valley and flowing over a few hillsides, 23 de Enero is a mix of 1950s-era cement tower blocks and the usual cinder-block homes wedged along winding staircases and walkways.
The ten- and fifteen-story tower blocks are adorned in an improbable and tatterdemalion layer of colorful laundry hanging from external drying racks or barred windows. Behind the clothes and the bars one can see lush potted plants, caged and squawking birds or household items stacked up in the tiny, overcrowded apartments. On the back sides of the towers, mounds of trash sit in and around dumpsters that are placed below long, dilapidated external garbage chutes that usually have big sections of pipe missing.
From the top of each tower flies a red-and-blue flag: the colors of the Coordinador Simón Bolívar, a powerful community organization that has its roots in the urban guerrilla movements of the 1970s and '80s. Described with the catchphrase Tupamaros, these urban partisans were really a collection of groups and factions rather than a single force, as the name would suggest.
Even today, many comrades in the barrios are still armed. A fellow journalist was pulled over by masked gunmen at a Tupamaro checkpoint in 23 de Enero during the tense days around the August 2004 referendum. The homies were making sure no escuálido thugs snuck into the 'hood to do a drive-by. They also wanted my friend to donate his videocamera to the revolution, putting a gun to his head to help him make his decision. But when adult supervision finally showed up, the muchachos running the traffic stop were persuaded to give back the camera.
At the Coordinador's little headquarters I meet this other type of Chavista: not a sentimental housewife like Guerrero, but a hard-core ex-guerrilla. Juan Contreras is balding, a bit paunchy and has rather unassuming boyish features, but he got his political education the hard way and at a young age: in the form of demonstrations, police beatings and shootouts with the paramilitary forces of the state. He is now one of the key organizers in the Coordinador.
The walls outside the office are covered in revolutionary murals: One honors a youth killed in a demonstration against Henry Kissinger in the 1970s, another is for the Zapatistas, a third displays the classic Alberto Korda portrait of Che Guevara. Most of the art predates Chávez, and none portrays his image.
"Chávez did not produce the movements--we produced him," explains Contreras. "He has helped us tremendously, but what is going on here cannot be ascribed only to Chávez."
According to Contreras and a few of his comrades, the Coordinador got its start after the failed Chávez coup in 1992. In the wake of that defeat, the government began jailing leftists. Contreras fled to Cuba for a month with twenty-nine other activists from 23 de Enero; upon their return, almost all of them were arrested, and Contreras went into hiding. About a year and a half after the attempted coup, the activists regrouped and decided that armed struggle was definitely over and done with. They created the Coordinador and devoted themselves to aboveground work.
Today the Coordinador pursues a three-pronged strategy that involves reclaiming public space from drug gangs, recovering local cultural traditions and promoting organized sports. Already the barrio has produced several players for Major League Baseball, including Ugueth Urbina, Juan Carlos Ovalles and Juan Carlos Pulido. Later a young guy named Kristhian Linares stops by to pay his respects to Contreras. Only 18 years old, Linares has just signed with the Florida Marlins. He starts spring training as soon as his papers are in order.
After building these forms of social solidarity, the Coordinador then launched another project, setting up committees to deal with health, land titles, elections and the like. Some of this work interfaces with government-funded missions, some doesn't. But the paramount issue here is security. The slums of Caracas are extremely violent. Every week, around eighty people are murdered in this city of 5 million.
"We use culture and sports and organization to take over public spaces," explains Contreras. What if the drug gangs refuse to move? "Well, many of them are connected by family to the larger community, so we use that pressure. There is the armed tradition here, and they respect that. And there is a tradition of lynching in this barrio. In the past the community has killed some criminals. Not recently, but it has happened. So most of the gangs take us seriously and stay away from the central areas."
Later, as we scale a ridge packed with little homes, he explains that farther into the barrio are some agricultural projects but that I'll have to come back to visit them because the outlying areas become dangerous in the afternoon. Clearly, cultural reclamation plus threat of lynching does not completely displace crime.
It also seems that the opposition, or elements in it, have on occasion used criminals against Chavistas. An activist from nearby 23 de Enero, a woman who once lived in California, tells the story of a gangster who was paid to make death threats against the local Cuban doctors. The doctors got so freaked out they split. But the woman, a trained social worker, found the young thug, a local guy, and explained to him that he would certainly be tracked down and killed by angry Chavistas if he persisted with his threats. The gangster reconsidered and decided to stay out of politics. The Cuban doctors returned.
The organized opposition to Chávez is rather thin on the ground these days, having been largely discredited by the right-wing extremism of their coup and the economic devastation caused by their oil strike. So I visit the offices of the right-wing tabloid Así Es la Noticia, owned by one of Venezuela's top-circulation dailies, El Nacional.
"Look, Chávez won the referendum. People have to accept that," says the editor, Albor Rodriguez. She is in her early 30s, an escuálido all the way, but she respects the facts.
Standing erect at her desk, one black-clad shoulder tipped forward, she takes long drags on her cigarette between comments. "There is no 'Castro communist' here. That's ridiculous. They say there are Cubans in the government and the security. But there is no proof. However, does Chávez have autocratic tendencies? Yes! He comes from the military. Does his government, or he himself, know what they are doing? No! His head is a mix--a marmalade of notions and slogans. He speaks without thinking. He makes innuendoes about Condoleezza Rice being in love with him. That's insane. He's totally erratic."
Albor, to my surprise, is almost as harsh on the opposition: "They lost because Chávez has a deep emotional connection with the people, and they have no connection with the people. Also, he has spent a lot of money on the barrios. He pours money into the barrios."
She explains that when her paper reported on the real work of the missions, some readers accused her of lying and "having gone to the moon to find these things." She explains: "The opposition lied to itself. They were deluded and now they are smashed." With that rather definitive summation, she puts out her cigarette and invites me to lunch.
There are some in the opposition whose critique focuses less on Chávez's supposed abuses of power and more on the government's alleged mismanagement and left-wing economic tomfoolery. Oscar Garcia Mendoza is president of Banco Venezolano de Credito, a very old and conservative bank. He's what Chávez would call an "oligarch," the official enemy: a capitalist financier. But when I meet him in his beautiful corner office on the ninth floor of a Modernist highrise, he is beaming. He wears a dark blue suit, his gray hair is cropped stylishly short and he has that healthy look that seems to come from being rich and relaxed.
Classical music filters out from speakers in the ceiling; on the table are fine Cuban cigars. We sit in bent plywood and leather Herman Miller chairs, and gaze out across the city through a glass wall lined with thick green plants.
"Business has never been better," says Garcia. "This government is totally incompetent. They have no idea what they are doing. The head of their land reform, Eliezer Otaiza, is a former male stripper. And did you see they just appointed Carlos Lanz, a former terrorist kidnapper, a communist, as head of Alcasa, our largest aluminum company?" Through it all, Garcia wears a slightly suppressed grin as if he thinks the whole thing is hilarious. "I mean, can you imagine that?"
In a way, Lanz's appointment is not so outrageous: Another former guerrilla, Ali Rodriguez Araque, once minister of mining and energy, then head of OPEC, is now foreign minister and widely respected as a level-headed negotiator.
Garcia also has some very concrete criticisms. He says that the current economic boom is a chimera based on oil prices. In 2004 government spending jumped 47 percent, much of which went to pay for healthcare and education--the missions. But despite the oil windfall, the government has had to borrow heavily. Instead of turning to international financiers, it has increased its internal debt to Venezuelan banks.
Garcia says that in the past four years this internal debt has gone from $2 billion to more than $27 billion. The Finance Ministry confirms these figures and says that 60 percent of this debt is held in government bonds.
"But what makes this really crazy," says Garcia, "is that the government is depositing all its oil revenue in the same banks at about 5 percent, then borrowing it back at 14 percent. It's a very easy way for bankers to make money. That's why I say this is a government for the rich."
Last year Venezuelan banks made $1.38 billion in profits, just a bit more than they did the year before. And most of that money came from lending to the Chávez government and trading in special government-approved, dollar-denominated bonds, a legal loophole in the new currency-control law. Garcia's bank actually does no business with the government, but the huge increase in oil revenues has doubled his loan portfolio. The economy is awash in money: Growth was 17.3 percent in 2004.
So if the economy is booming, why does Garcia dislike Chávez?
"These people are crooks," he says. "Look, Venezuela has always been corrupt, but these guys are the worst." When I point out that the government just fired 120 managers in Zulia state for corruption, Garcia waves it away as insufficient.
"What are they doing with all the money? They are not investing. They spend it all on food and medicine. As soon as oil goes down, their party is over." So what should the government do to avoid this? "They should privatize everything."
Getting a Chávez government response to charges of mismanagement, corruption and overdependence on freakishly high oil prices is difficult. My inquiries are fed into the labyrinthine bureaucracy of the Information Ministry, where every few days a new official loses my paperwork and needs a full CV and another letter from my editors and another complete written explanation of my project.
After three weeks no one in the Chávez government has come forth with an on-the-record statement except for one laid-back spokesperson at the Higher Education Ministry.
Finally an old friend gets me an interview with his boss, Jorge Giordani, a former academic who befriended Chávez during the rebellious paratrooper's stint in jail and is now the planning and development minister. On matters of economic development, Giordani is the revolution's brain. We meet in his office near the top of South America's tallest building, one of a pair of towers, the other of which stands half-burned, its gold-tinted, mirrored windows blown out and black, the result of a recent accident caused by bad maintenance.
Giordani is tall, gray and hunched. He wears big glasses, a tie, a brown cardigan sweater and has a short white Abe Lincoln beard. He evades most specific questions. As for corruption, he says simply: "We are not doing enough. It is a very serious problem."
Mostly he offers a long but interesting explanation of Venezuela's historical development and its lack of internal economic integration. We move from map to map as he explicates the economic geography of various regions.
Many Chavistas hope that investing in physical infrastructure, health and education will open new, nonpetroleum industries in high technology, business services, healthcare and agriculture. When I ask Giordani how the country plans to wean itself from oil, about land reform and about the many so-called "endogenous" development projects being promoted, he sighs and shakes his head as if I am naïve.
"We've been fighting political battles for most of our time in office. Many people have learned to read in the last few years, but how long will it take for them to work in high technology, or medicine, or services? Ten years? A generation? We are fighting a very individualistic, rentier culture. Everything has been 'Mama state, Papa state, give me oil money.' To organize people is extremely hard."
After a long, roundabout discussion in which I press him on the question of import substitution and new industrialization, he settles on one key point: Venezuela's only real hope lies in regional economic integration. Only then will internal markets be big enough to nurture alternative technologies and new industries that might otherwise threaten current multinational monopolies.
Giordani seems weary and cynical. "No, I am just practical," he says with a chuckle. "Development in Venezuela will take at least fifty years."
And how long will the oil last?
"Maybe twenty years, maybe thirty."

fonte: http://www.thenation.com/article/hugo-ch%C3%A1vez-and-petro-populism?page=full#


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